The shock of Brexit
15 April 2016
The referendum campaign on Britain remaining in Europe gets underway officially today. ING’s Economics department takes a look at the arguments that may drive voting intentions and the implications of a UK Brexit.
They analyse the three three main political arguments for leaving: immigration, the cost to the British taxpayer and sovereignty. In assessing the implications of a Brexit, they believe it could lead to an additional 10-15% sell-off in sterling and argue it could have a long-term negative impact on trade. However, they believe there is also one other major consideration: the impact it might have on other European member states.
“There is a growing momentum behind a number of anti-EU parties and a successful exit for Britain could lead to significant political risk for other states and an uncertain future of the European Union,” they conclude. The referendum will be held on 23 June.